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Dear S.Q. We're going to Las Vegas and my wife wants to stay at the hotel where her sister recently won $6,000.00 at a "one-armed bandit." She's convinced that it's a winning slot machine. How to convince her this is nuts?
Dear Gambler, Overcoming magical thinking is tough, especially in L.V. where enchantment built a mega industry in a dessert that originally didn't even have water. The Recency Effect is where recent events are favored over past events, and is another one of the cognitive bias that colors people’s thinking, usually without their awareness.
The last thing (story, event, person) you encountered is remembered more positively. Read the numbers above, in order, and out loud. Which one do you remember first? (Recency is closely linked, and opposite of, primacy bias, -over-weighing the first information you receive). The mind is miraculous, but it takes shortcuts for efficiency. The trick is: review all the information, summarize pros and cons accurately. Remind your wife of the 10 times before that her sister lost her shirt at this casino. -SQ
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